Research / 2026 evidence report
Residential solar planning and quote signals
Compare a standardized state planning model with a separately screened sample of prices and equipment configurations reported by U.S. homeowners in 2026.
The two evidence layers are not blended. Modeled results explain system planning; community reports show what a small, unverified sample of homeowners said they were quoted.
- Modeled coverage
- 9 states
- Community records
- 24 cases
- Comparable subset
- 3 cases
- Observed subset range
- $2.58-$2.99/W
Every state currently supported by the calculator.
Collected from 12 public Reddit threads.
Enough for examples, not a market average.
Three screened, self-reported purchase quotes.
01 / Comparison
How much system is needed?
More usable solar energy means fewer installed kilowatts are needed to produce the same annual target. Panel count rounds up to a whole 400W module.
- 016.63 kWArizona6.2 sun hrs/day
- 026.85 kWNevada6.0 sun hrs/day
- 037.61 kWCalifornia5.4 sun hrs/day
- 047.75 kWColorado5.3 sun hrs/day
- 058.06 kWTexas5.1 sun hrs/day
- 068.56 kWFlorida4.8 sun hrs/day
- 078.74 kWNorth Carolina4.7 sun hrs/day
- 0810.27 kWNew York4.0 sun hrs/day
- 0910.54 kWMassachusetts3.9 sun hrs/day
02 / Dataset
Standardized state results
Cost is a neutral $3.00/W planning input, not a claim about current installer pricing. Simple payback excludes financing, tax credits, fixed utility charges, maintenance, and roof-specific work.
| State | Sun hrs/day | Retail $/kWh | Required kW | Panels | Year-one kWh | Modeled cost | Simple payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 5.4 | $0.31 | 7.61 | 20 | 12,614 | $24,000 | 6.4 years |
| Texas | 5.1 | $0.15 | 8.06 | 21 | 12,509 | $25,200 | 13.8 years |
| Florida | 4.8 | $0.16 | 8.56 | 22 | 12,334 | $26,400 | 13.7 years |
| Arizona | 6.2 | $0.16 | 6.63 | 17 | 12,311 | $20,400 | 10.6 years |
| Nevada | 6.0 | $0.15 | 6.85 | 18 | 12,614 | $21,600 | 11.8 years |
| Colorado | 5.3 | $0.16 | 7.75 | 20 | 12,381 | $24,000 | 12.4 years |
| North Carolina | 4.7 | $0.14 | 8.74 | 22 | 12,077 | $26,400 | 15.7 years |
| New York | 4.0 | $0.24 | 10.27 | 26 | 12,147 | $31,200 | 10.8 years |
| Massachusetts | 3.9 | $0.28 | 10.54 | 27 | 12,299 | $32,400 | 9.6 years |
Required kW is the continuous energy target. Panels and modeled cost use whole-panel installed capacity, so year-one production can slightly exceed 12,000 kWh.
03 / Community evidence
What homeowners reported in 2026
The initial review found 24 quote or installation records in 12 public Reddit threads. Only three met the preliminary comparison rules; two of those came from the same New Jersey homeowner.
These are self-reported community examples, not verified contracts, completed-project records, or a statistically representative market sample.
| Location | System | Reported price | Context | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | 17.10 kW | $2.27/W | 39 SEG 440W modules, Enphase IQ8AC, no battery | Review |
| Central Pennsylvania | 7.44 kW | $18,320 | Canadian Solar 465W, IQ8HC, 9,400 kWh/year | Review |
| Southern Michigan | 11.88 kW | $29,388 | 27 JA Solar 440W modules, IQ8A, 15,860 kWh/year | Review |
| New Jersey | 17.63 kW | $47,000 | Cash, no battery, 16,508 kWh/year, about 30% shade | Comparable |
| New Jersey | 23.65 kW | $61,000 | Cash, no battery, 22,003 kWh/year, about 30% shade | Comparable |
| Rockland County, NY | 14.70 kW | $43,953 | Tesla purchase option, 15,723 kWh/year, before incentives | Comparable |
Cash, financed, PPA, post-incentive, and battery-inclusive prices are kept in separate cohorts. The observed $2.58-$2.99/W subset is descriptive only and must not be read as a 2026 market average.
All 24 cases04 / Method
Reproducible assumptions
Modeled rows come from SolarLinkup's deterministic calculator. Community rows follow a separate review protocol and never change calculator results.
Energy profile
12,000 kWh/year, 100% annual offset, 400W panels, and 20% system loss.
Cost profile
$3.00/W gross installed cost. No incentive, loan, battery, maintenance, or tax adjustment is applied.
Core formula
Annual yield per kW = peak sun hours x 365 x (1 - system loss). Required kW = annual target divided by annual yield per kW.
Update policy
State baselines were last reviewed . API-backed state pages may show newer location-specific results.
05 / Sources
Source hierarchy
Solar production logic follows the documented PVWatts-style annual yield relationship. Location-specific calculator runs use NLR PVWatts v8 when available; residential electricity baselines use EIA Open Data, with configured state fallbacks clearly labeled when provider data is unavailable.
Community cases are short factual summaries of public 2026 Reddit posts. SolarLinkup does not verify poster identity, contract execution, installation completion, incentive eligibility, or final project cost, and does not collect usernames in the research dataset.